2025 is seeing a wave of Return To Office (RTO) mandates. But what problem does it solve? There are lots of buzz phrases being bantered about like “we work best when we are together”. But once you get past the hype and corporate and political weathervaning, they are generally pretty hollow in their substance. So You only need to look at western North Carolina and the LA area to see people where there may be no office to return to. Thousands have no home to return to.
Returning to the office doesn’t solve a problem. It’s already creating problems for many of the companies that are trying to implement them. Little things like not enough desks, parking, nowhere to eat, new fees for getting into the city, etc. And then what happens when Mother Nature does something unexpected? Maybe your office is destroyed. Maybe people can’t get to the office. It could just be a snowstorm, or maybe something larger. Currently in Southern California, 6,000,000 people are at risk. That’s 5 times what was evacuated in Hurricane Katrina.
This Year’s Disaster Numbers
In the last year, we have had Hurricane Milton (2024), which caused $60 billion in damage, and Hurricane Helene (2024), which caused $55 Billion. Now, the Los Angeles Wildfires (January 2025) are likely to eclipse all the U.S. disasters of the last five years combined, with estimated damages between $250 billion and $275 billion, making them one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.
No one is ready for a disaster on that scale. You need to know what the likely outcomes are and leverage the tools you have at your disposal to minimize the impact. Let’s look at what’s likely to happen in the LA area in the next few weeks. It’s easy to say “That couldn’t happen to me” but LA is just an example of what is possible anywhere.
Work Displacement
If your work is location-dependent, relocation is usually the go-to answer if possible. Many businesses affected by the fires will likely move to temporary locations, disrupting daily operations. Employees may need to travel farther to reach these new locations or work remotely where feasible. That’s the best case for employers that don’t have remote work provisions.
In most cases, it’s not as simple as renting a new space. And if a business wasn’t set up for remote work before a disaster, they may have trouble getting set up after one. Small businesses that were destroyed also might not have the resources to rebuild, leading to job losses for their employees. If you don’t have a plan for working other than your primary location, you aren’t going to have a lot of options if that location goes away or can not be accessed.
Knowing how your team is going to work remotely in a disruption or disaster can minimize the impact. And it’s one less thing to think about in an actual disaster situation. There will be more than enough, “What do we do now?” questions to deal with. Workers could end up in a hotel, a rental property, or with friends or relatives if they are lucky. Remote work is likely to be a strategy to get back to normal, but after a disaster is not the best time to work out the details if you don’t have to.
Remote Work Adoption
I don’t know the worker demographics of the affected area or what businesses were located there so it may be a while before we get beyond just food and shelter. For businesses that can operate online, there may be a shift towards remote work as a temporary or permanent solution. Most companies that went remote during Covid did so because they had no choice. Remote, relocate, or close are generally the options that businesses are going to face in any disaster situation. Figuring out the logistics of the first two options should ideally happen well before a disaster.
Remote work is the less expensive option with annual fixed cost savings over an office of usually between $11,000-17,000 per person. Going remote could be challenging for industries like retail or hospitality, which rely on physical spaces. There could be some opportunities for more food trucks, pop-up shops, etc. It will be a while before the ecosystem finds its new normal.
Shift in Economic Sectors
Blue-collar jobs in the area are likely to change based on recovery needs. As rebuilding efforts ramp up, there may be a temporary surge in demand for workers in construction, logistics, and support services. I don’t know how long it takes to rebuild 10,000+ homes, but it’s likely to be a while. To put this in perspective, roughly 1% of the number of homes built in the United States annually need to be rebuilt in one community.
Tourism, retail, and other sectors that depend on local physical infrastructure could see long-term declines. I don’t know that anyone has even tried to quantify this with the fires still burning. There will be a variety of opportunities created as a result of the destruction. Some will want to rebuild just like before. Others will sell and move. And some will want to leverage modern technology and build energy-efficient, fire-resistant homes that may be very different than what was there previously. I’m willing to predict that this will be the first large-scale instance of printed homes.
Changes in Workplace Design
For those that do rebuild, I think you will see more of a focus on resilience. Businesses rebuilding their offices and facilities may prioritize designs that are more resistant to fires and other natural disasters. One of the few positives that come out of disasters is that people rebuild better and are often different from what was there previously. This has allowed high-speed trains to evolve in countries like Japan and Germany. Whereas, U.S. trains still run on the same tracks from a century ago and many areas aren’t straight enough to operate at high speeds. I don’t know what changes will emerge with new business locations in the LA area, but they will most decidedly be different. Companies might invest in more co-working spaces or modular offices to allow for adaptability during future disruptions.
Infrastructure Challenges
I don’t know what the result will be, but there was a lot of discussion early on about the destruction of communications facilities and the obvious power lines. I believe that even with the earthquake threat to the area, electricity and internet will be underground when they rebuild. It will require more planning, but I think it’s a better solution long term. Until the infrastructure is put back in place rebuilding is going to be challenging.
Solar power is likely to be part of both the rebuilding process (since most of the powerlines are gone) and the long-term plan for future homes and businesses in the area. Roads and access to public transportation are likely to be challenging for many months. Again, remote work provides a hedge against these types of challenges.
Community and Economic Recovery
We tend not to see our communities as systems until part or all of them are gone. Those need to be rebuilt or reestablished somewhere else temporarily. Businesses might form hubs in unaffected areas to help employees and customers gather. And it’s going to take a lot of money. Federal and state programs could provide financial assistance to help businesses rebuild and retain their employees. But one ugly truth is starting to come to light. Older adults especially, stop paying for homeowners insurance after the house is paid off. It surfaces in Florida with every hurricane and we are already seeing stories about it with fire victims in LA.
These changes underscore the importance of resilience planning and support systems for affected workers and businesses. If your company doesn’t have a remote work option you should at least explore it for emergencies. You might find that putting one in place in advance makes you more resilient to day-to-day interruptions like colds, soccer practice, injuries, travel, etc.
When lots of companies have remote work programs at scale, it changes the way communities work. When you build resilient companies and government organizations, you also help build resilient communities. Don’t wait until it’s too late to test this theory.
